Japan's Democrats Gird for Battle

Posted July 30, 2008

The eyes of Japan’s political world may be upon Prime Minister Fukuda Yasuo as he deliberates on whether to reshuffle his cabinet before the autumn extraordinary session of the Diet, scheduled to begin in late August or early September (the Fukuda government and the ruling LDP are also deliberating on this question). No less important, however, is the opposition DPJ’s leadership election, which was released scheduled for Sept. 21, with the campaign officially opening on Sept. 8.

The runup to the party’s election comes at a potentially vulnerable time for the DPJ, as the party has been roiled by public disagreement among senior leaders over the party’s policy approach. At the certain of the dispute are Maehara Seiji, the forty-six-year-old former party leader who is the putative leader of the DPJ’s conservative wing and a deputy president of the party, and Ozawa Ichiro, the incumbent party chief who has served in the Diet for nearly forty years and who in his forties was a rising star much like Mr. Maehara.

DPJ leaders Maehara Seiji, Ozawa Ichiro and Kan Naoto. 

Mr. Maehara, in articles in the conservative monthlies Voice and Chuo Koron, criticized the DPJ’s approach to politics and policy, arguing that under Mr. Ozawa’s leadership the party is putting the political game before policy, to the detriment of the Japanese people. He called upon the party’s leaders to think realistically about how the DPJ would govern Japan were it to unseat the LDP and criticized the party’s 2007 election manifesto as unrealistic, arguing in the July issue of Voice, “I will be repeating myself, but the policies advocated by the DPJ must be possible to implement. Furthermore, the implementation of advocated policies must in reality put a stop to the falling rate of food self-sufficiency and the declining birth rate.” (He singled out DPJ proposals on agricultural subsidies and child allowances are particularly unrealistic in light of the Japanese government’s financial condition.)

His words shook the party. Some members called for his removal from his post as deputy president. Suga Yoshihide, deputy chairman of the LDP’s election strategy committee, praised Mr. Maehara, saying of his remarks, “He spoke courageously. If someone like Maehara-san becomes leader, it will become a party that can be trusted and Japan will have a true two large-party system.” Mr. Suga’s attitude is indicative of the LDP’s approach to the DPJ more generally. Faced with intractable dissension in their party’s ranks, the LDP’s leaders increasingly pin their hopes for success in the next general election on disarray within the DPJ that will prevent the opposition party from exploiting the LDP’s failings. Indeed, Mr. Maehara’s critique of his own party plays right into the LDP’s hands by providing it with a readymade illustration of why the DPJ -- by the admission of one of its senior leaders! -- is unfit to govern.

Hatoyama Yukio, DPJ secretary-general, and, along with Mr. Ozawa and Kan Naoto, the acting president, a member of the party’s ruling “troika,” appealed for calm, calling on Mr. Maehara to exercise prudence in public discussion of the party’s platform in light of his position as a deputy head of the party. Mr. Maehara later softened his critique of the platform, saying in a speech in early July that he does not reject the party’s thinking, he only wants to make its platform better.

But Mr. Maehara’s soft-pedaling will not be enough to spare Mr. Ozawa a challenge in the September election, although some Ozawa supporters have called for him to be elected to a third term uncontested. Mr. Ozawa is likely to face a challenger from either Mr. Maehara’s faction or the faction led by Noda Yoshihiko, which is closely related to Mr. Maehara’s. Mr. Ozawa’s leadership has disappointed numerous members of the party, but none more than the conservative reformists clustered around Mr. Maehara, whose policy positions are closer to those of former LDP Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro than many of their fellow DPJ members.

So far none of the young turks has stepped forward to announce their candidacy against Mr. Ozawa. Both Mr. Maehara and Mr. Noda have indicated that each is willing to run if no one else does; Okada Katsuya, another young former party leader who led the party in the disastrous 2005 election, has refused to comment on another run in September, despite releasing a new book outlining his plan for transforming Japan.

The reluctance of these outspoken critics of Mr. Ozawa’s leadership to step forward to challenge him in the September election is a reflection of the difficulty of the task. Mr. Ozawa’s position at the head of the party is secure. The bulk of the party’s leadership supports him, and he is reputed to already enjoy the support of more than half the party’s Diet members. Having devoted his time as leader to campaigning around the country, he is also popular among the party’s prefectural chapters, whose rank-and-file members vote in the leadership election.

Challenging Mr. Ozawa this year means certain defeat, and as a result the anti-Ozawa candidate may be Sengoku Yoshito, an outspoken Ozawa critic. At sixty-two Mr. Sengoku is the oldest member of the Maehara group, and as a former member of the Socialist Party he is probably the least conservative member of the faction. His candidacy will enable the younger, ambitious members of the group to wait for a more propitious time to campaign for the leadership.

A Sengoku-Ozawa race may be the best possible scenario for the DPJ, enabling the party to have the policy discussion desired by Mr. Maehara and other critics, without tarnishing one of the promising members of the rising generation. The party can dispel LDP criticism that the DPJ is not run democratically and conduct some useful self-criticism (Mr. Hatoyama has already suggested that the party should provide more specifics in its manifesto), while returning the adroit Mr. Ozawa to power with a new mandate to prepare the DPJ for the general election that will be held within a year of the party election.

Tobias Harris is a free-lance writer based in Tokyo. He is the author of Observing Japan (http://www.observingjapan.com), a blog on Japanese politics.