Pakistan's Short-Lived Peace
by Kamal Siddiqi
Posted July 16, 2008
A suicide bomb attack earlier this month in Islamabad on the first anniversary of the storming of the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) complex by government troops indicates that the honeymoon period between militants and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani is over. The July 6 attack killed at least 19, most of those policemen, and wounded scores more.
When Mr. Gilani took office by a thumping majority in end-March 2008, he had promised political dialogue with Pakistan's religious militant groups based in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and the North West Frontier Province. This olive branch by Mr. Gilani resulted in a significant drop in terror attacks by militant groups. But 100 days into his administration, the battle lines are drawn as talks have failed and a peace agreement has been abandoned.
It seems that on-ground realities have prevailed over political rhetoric. When the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by Asif Zardari, and the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, gave an impressive performance in the February elections, they had promised not to take dictation from abroad—an obvious reference to U.S. “advice” on how to fight the war on terror. Messrs. Zardari and Sharif agreed to engage militants in dialogue instead. The two, who form part of the ruling coalition, told the media at the time that the matter would have to be tackled differently as compared to how President Musharraf had fought the war in the preceding six years or so.
In this, the parties had the support of another regional party—the Awami National Party (ANP), which went on to form the state government in the North West Frontier Province. The ANP, which was elected on the agenda of peace, pushed ahead for a peace agreement with the religious militant groups in that province and in the ANP.
Despite serious misgivings expressed by the U.S., the political government went ahead and did a deal with religious militants groups including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the local version of the dreaded Afghan Taliban militia. Under the agreement, violence was forsaken by both sides and in exchange, the North West Frontier Province government agreed to allow some of the militias to impose religious law in their areas of influence. More significantly, a number of prisoners held by the government that had been captured in various military operations were set free.
This annoyed both the military and the coalition forces. As a result, military action and coalition forces bombings witnessed a significant increase in the troubled Waziristan area of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. More worrisome, however, was that with the rise in army action in different sectors, militant groups also increased their attacks and fighting in different areas of the North West Frontier Province, primarily the Swat Valley. In all this, the political government remained a helpless bystander.
Finally, by June some militant groups had advanced near the provincial capital of Peshawar. As a result, Pakistan Army Chief Gen. Pervez Ashfaq Kayani pushed for action in the North West Frontier Province in both the Khyber Agency, an area that borders Peshawar and is located in the tribal areas, and in Swat, which has seen a resurgence in militant activity. Reluctantly, this permission was given by Prime Minister Gilani and his cabinet members.
While the army claims that it has registered significant gains in its operation in these two areas, most Pakistanis say that this action has come at a price. Many say that not enough effort was made by the Gilani government to engage the militant groups. Many blame Mr. Gilani and de facto Interior Minister Rehman Malik for tearing up the peace agreement without really giving peace a chance.
Pakistanis are understandably fearful that with the breakdown of talks, terror will rear its head again, especially in the populated urban areas. Already some militant groups, like a Pakistani militant group headed by Baitullah Mehsud, have threatened retaliation in response to army action in Waziristan.
In all this, coalition allies PML-N and ANP say that the PPP-led government did not take them into confidence before allowing the military action. While Information Minister Sherry Rehman denies this, the general impression is that the government gave up its peace agreement in haste. This does not bode well for the Gilani government in the long run which needs its coalition partners to introduce some of the legal and constitutional reforms it has in mind.
Already relations are sore over the foot-dragging by Asif Zardari and the PPP on the issue of reinstatement of sacked judges of the Supreme Court. A disagreement on how best to proceed in the war on terror will further weaken the Gilani government.
In all this, President Musharraf sees a chance to strengthen his base, which had considerably weakened after his resignation as army chief and the February elections. The U.S. is pushing for more involvement by Mr. Musharraf in these matters. If this were to happen, it would not go down well with the Gilani government and would likely cause political turmoil amongst the ruling coalition partners.
In any event, with terrorist attacks on the horizon, you can expect the coming months to be rocky in terms of the political future of the country.
Mr. Kamal Siddiqi is editor of the reporting desk at the News International in Karachi, Pakistan.
